2022 nba draft breaking down the knicks three separate trades

At first glance, the 2022 NBA draft night was notable more for what didn’t happen. Kyrie Irving didn’t get traded. Neither did John Collins, nor Dejounte Murray, nor any of the top 10 picks. The pre-draft chatter that there would be a lot of wheeling and dealing, even at the top of the draft, mostly fizzled into chalkiness through 10 picks. We still had two surprises in the first four picks, but not as much action as we were led to believe would occur.

And then the draft made up for lost time. A flurry of trades between Charlotte, New York, Detroit and Oklahoma City had everyone scratching their heads trying to figure out what just happened, where all the picks were going and for which team Jalen Duren actually played. Just as things calmed down, Memphis and Minnesota churned the pot with a flurry of deals that saw picks 19, 22, 23, 26 and 29 change hands.

As a result, this draft ended up as weird as ever, culminating in an ending at pick… 58? — yep, 58 — after Miami and Milwaukee forfeited their second-round picks in separate tampering cases.

Let’s break it all down, starting with the significant trades and then working our way down through everything else.

Wait, what happened at No. 1?

Everybody seemed pretty comfortable with the idea that Paolo Banchero would be the third player picked … until word started leaking on draft day that the Orlando Magic might actually take him first. The working presumption had been that the Magic would take Jabari Smith, Jr., whom most analysts rated as the top player, and that if they didn’t go that way, then their obsession with length would guide them to Chet Holmgren.

Instead, they grabbed the relatively short-armed Banchero after having held their cards mere micrometers from their chest since last month’s draft lottery. One might wonder why a team would keep its choice at No. 1 a secret — it’s not like anybody can leapfrog you — but the Magic could have had trade-down scenarios if they realized their preferred choice would still be available at number 3. In the rare draft in which differences of opining were pretty widespread about which of the top three players would go No. 1, the Magic were always going to face a difficult choice. Given their glaring need for offense, it’s hard to argue with the direction they chose, even if I had Smith rated slightly higher.

Wait, what are the Kings doing?

I had Jaden Ivey rated third on my board and Keegan Murray seventh; however, Ivey presented obvious fit issues in Sacramento’s crowded backcourt, whereas Murray seemed to fit a mostly forwardless Kings roster rather well. The obvious solution would have been to trade down, especially with Detroit at No. 5, but when Sacramento couldn’t find a deal it went for Murray … even though nearly everybody had Ivey rated as the greater talent.

Time will tell where this falls in the pantheon of Kangzy draft moments. Murray played in the same league as Ivey a year ago and was awesome; it’s not inconceivable that he could turn out to be the better player. If Ivey turns out to be a star, however, Sacramento fans will always wonder if the sunk cost of other recent moves (De’Aaron Fox’s max deal, the Davion Mitchell pick in 2021, the Donte DiVincenzo trade) wagged the dog on the fourth pick in the draft.

Wait, what on earth did the Thunder just do?

One thing about the amazing heap of draft picks the Thunder have accumulated, is that it presents diminishing returns in being able to use all of them effectively. Oklahoma City already owned the 2nd and 12th picks, yet used three future firsts to gain the Knicks’ selection at 11.

Those three firsts are each unlikely to match the value of the 11th pick. The first two are lottery-protected selections from Washington and Denver, respectively; the Denver pick is likely around 20 in the 2023 draft, while the Wizards pick is relatively juicy in the out years (top-10 protected in 2025, top-8 in 2026) but has a chance to never convey. The third pick, from Detroit, is top-18 protected for two more years and then likely conveys as a late first when the Pistons are good mid-decade.

And yet … Oklahoma City gave up three firsts to pounce on Ousmane Dieng, who is certainly interesting but might best be described as Bruno-lite: A year away from being a year away. After Dieng struggled to make an impact in Australia last year, one can argue he’s a perfect Oklahoma City player for this era. As with Aleksej Pokusevski and Theo Maledon before him, he will probably help the Thunder get another high lottery pick.

The other part of the Thunder jumping in like this is that they had the next pick. Given that the Knicks pretty clearly weren’t taking Dieng, they probably could have just waited their turn. Unless they thought that both Dieng and the player they took at 12, Jalen Williams, were so valuable that each was worth the three firsts, they ended up on the short end of the value stick.

While this wasn’t as egregious as last year’s decision to trade picks 36 and 34 just to move up to 32 and select Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, it reflects the downside of accumulating so much draft capital at once: It’s virtually impossible to use (and roster) all the picks without aggressive move-ups like this.

While we’re here, Oklahoma City drafted Jalen Williams at 12 … and Jaylin Williams at 34. Good luck with that, Mark Daigneault.

Wait, what did the Knicks just do, and why?

See if you can follow along. The Knicks traded the 11th pick to Oklahoma City for three firsts, as noted above … and then brokered a deal to send the 13th pick from Charlotte to Detroit. In that second deal, they dropped off Kemba Walker’s contact on the Pistons’ doorstep. The problem is they paid extravagantly to do so, surrendering four future seconds just to unload $9.1 million from their cap, and swapping the 2023 Denver pick above for a Milwaukee first in 2025 that is top-four protected.

By trading the 11th pick and also dumping Walker’s contract, New York is $8.5 million below the salary cap, presuming it keeps Mitchell Robinson’s Bird Rights on the books (at a pittance of $1.77 million, they’d be crazy not to). That room increases to $13.6 million if they waive Taj Gibson’s non-guaranteed deal. However, to chase free-agent target Jalen Brunson, they likely need to use one of the firsts from the Thunder trade to incentivize a team to take Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and/or Evan Fournier.

So, great work to squeeze the Thunder for three firsts with a pick just after the draft’s talent cliff … but the part where they’re sending draft equity back out, and getting ripped off on the deal, just to chase a non-All-Star free agent for near-max money? That harkens back to the Knicks of old. Not to mention, it doesn’t speak particularly well of the Knicks’ 2021 offseason, when each of these deals now being thrown overboard were signed.

Wait, what is Detroit’s end game here?

It may seem confusing that the Pistons dumped Jerami Grant’s $20 million salary to create cap room Wednesday, only to take on Walker’s $9 million salary Thursday. It also may seem confusing that the first trade had Motown talking about pursuits of Deandre Ayton and Brunson, while the addition of Duren and the abetting of Brunson’s biggest pursuer would suggest the opposite.

But the Pistons, after all of this, still are assured of having max cap room, and turned the Milwaukee pick into the 13th pick in the draft (Duren) just by using a small portion of the room on Walker. Detroit can shave $2 million or more by agreeing to a buyout with Walker. This trade was a no-brainer, and likely on their radar as a possibility when they made the Grant deal. Detroit sacrificed very little optionality here, and in Duren, got a piece that is clearly valuable, regardless of how the Ayton pursuit pans out.

Wait, did Charlotte win a trade?

The Hornets could have drafted Duren but opted for Mark Williams instead. While it remains to be seen how history judges that decision, consider that the Hornets also got four second-round picks and a likely pick in the 20-range from Denver in 2023 by surrendering Duren to the Pistons. They could do so because they had both picks 13 and 15; the thought was they might pursue immediate help or a Gordon Hayward salary dump with those picks, but instead they got pretty strong value from a pick they weren’t all that jazzed to use.

Overall, Charlotte filled a key need without reaching and got value for the other pick; It’s not quite LaMelo Ball, and I don’t love the Hornets giving up a future second just to move up five spots in the second round, but this was one of their better draft days.

Wait, does Memphis have 50 players?

It seemed unlikely the Grizzlies would use their picks at 22, 29 and 47 to end up with more than one main-roster player for the coming season, given their current logjam. So much for that idea; Memphis ended up with even more picks. The Grizzlies traded De’Anthony Melton for the 23rd pick, traded the 22nd and 29th picks for the 19th pick and a 2023 Minnesota 2nd, then traded the Lakers’ 2024 second and cash to jump back in at 38.

So a night that began with picks 22, 29 and 47 ended with picks 19, 23, 38 and 47. Break it down and the move from choosing at 22 and 29 to spots 19 and 38 came at a cost of some cash and what is likely a worse future second-round pick in their quiver, which isn’t great, but not the dramatic overpay it first seemed when the trade was reported. Swapping Melton for a first was fair value for a guy who kept getting squeezed from the playoff rotation, even if he has a great contract and might look even better in Philly.

Those picks — power forwards Jake LaRavia and David Roddy, point guard Kennedy Chandler and shooting guard Vincent Williams — reflect two trends. First, Memphis continues to draft with a very strong analytics bent: All four players were ranked much higher by most analytic models than by traditional scouting, particularly Roddy. (The irony of this is not lost on me, thank you.)

Second, these are not the moves one would expect a team to make if the likelihood existed of Kyle Anderson coming back. LaRavia, in particular, seems plug-and-play as a backup 4 who can mimic some of SloMo’s functions.

The Grizzlies have traded up or traded in for every pick they’ve made in Zach Kleiman’s tenure as GM and kept that streak alive. Additionally, the roster crunch didn’t go away. Also, agreeing to two-ways with 47th pick Vincent Williams and undrafted Kenneth Lofton, Jr., (a favorite sleeper of mine), basically assures they will roster Chandler.

If so, that means Memphis has 14 guaranteed contacts for the coming season, before dealing with Danny Green (acquired in the Melton trade, with $10 million in guaranteed money, but out with a torn ACL), let alone Anderson or free agent Tyus Jones, or signing any other free agents. Memphis also still has $17 million in cap room, although Jones could soak up much of it. Things are going to get tight if the Grizzlies run it back, but they’re also still hunting the type of consolidation trade that could make them more threatening in May.

Wait, what are all these Minnesota trades about?

Tim Connelly’s first draft at the helm of the Timberwolves was also a very active one. He began the evening with picks 19, 40, 48 and 50, and ended it with picks 22, 26, 45 and 50. The Wolves also gave up three second-round picks to get from 19 to 22 and 26, but clawed all of them back by dumping pick 48 and moving down from 40 to 45. All told, the Wolves moved down three spots with their highest pick but moved up 17 spots with their two second-rounders.

As with Memphis, Minnesota faced a roster crunch, and rostering all these picks was never realistic. The Wolves sent the 48th pick to Indiana and selected a stash player at 50 (Italian guard Matteo Spagnolo). Their pick at 45 (Josh Minott, one of my favorite sleepers) may very well end up on a two-way.

Overall, they got fair value for their moves up and down and ended up with two needs filled: A shot-blocker in center Walker Kessler and a 3-and-D wing with some size in Wendell Moore, Jr.

Wait, did anything important happen in the second round?

Golden State second-rounder Ryan Rollins is one of my favorite sleepers; the sophomore from Toledo needs to tighten his jumper and his defense, but he flashed a lot of playmaking skill and mixed in some athletic pop too. The Warriors dropped $2 million on the Hawks to move up a mere seven spots in the second round to nab him, which is a bit extravagant but makes sense in the warped logic of the Warriors’ finances; if he’s worth rostering on a league-minimum salary, he’ll easily save them more than that amount in luxury taxes.

In addition to Minott, two other productive combo forwards high on my board suffered puzzling slides. Ohio State’s E.J. Liddell didn’t get picked until the Pelicans grabbed him at 41, and Baylor’s Kendall Brown plummeted all the way to 48 before the Pacers grabbed him … this after a run by teams on some particularly unaccomplished players between picks 27 and 37.

This takes us to an interesting debate of the 2022 draft, the one of pedigree vs. production. Several teams made bets on young players with strong pedigrees from previous years, despite glaring struggles in 2021-22. Notable among them were Miami’s Nikola Jovic (27), Golden State’s Patrick Baldwin, Jr. (28), Denver’s Peyton Watson (30), Orlando’s Caleb Houstan (32), the Lakers’ Max Christie (35) and Dallas’ Jaden Hardy (37). Will any of these players hit? Will they match the output of more productive players taken near the same points or later, such as Houston’s TyTy Washington (29), Indiana’s Andrew Nembhard (31), Memphis’s Chandler (38), New Orleans’s Liddell (41) and Minnesota’s Minott (45)?

Related Reading

Vecenie & Hollinger: Pick-by-pick breakdown of 2022 draft
Vecenie & Vorkunov: NBA teams preparing for Victor Wembanyama

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(Photo illustration: Wes McCabe / The Athletic; photos: Brad Penner / USA Today)

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